HEALTHMAP
HEALTHMAP (Health Evaluation and Action through Long-Term Trends and High-Impact Modeling & Analysis for Prevention) is a multi-year collaboration between Public Health Ontario and the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. Using the Ontario Disease Burden Model, HEALTHMAP projects how chronic disease patterns may change over time, and how prevention efforts and policy action could shift those trends. The initiative will generate insights to support evidence-informed planning and identify priorities for improving population health across Ontario. Through a phased approach, HEALTHMAP aims to expand the use of data and analytics in prevention planning while building enduring partnerships across Ontario’s health system.
Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario’s Public Health Units: Baseline Report
Forward-looking evidence base to support public health decision-making and health system collaboration to advance chronic disease prevention in Ontario.
Chronic disease is on the rise in Ontario:
3.1 million adults will be living with major illness by 2040
(up from 1.8 million in 2020 — a 72% increase)
1 in 4 adults over age 30 will be affected
(compared with about 1 in 8 in 2002)
The number of adults with at least one chronic condition will increase by 2 million
Chronic disease is placing growing pressure on individuals, communities, and Ontario’s health system. Without concerted prevention and system‑wide action, these trends are expected to substantially increase demand for health care and place growing strain on Ontario’s health system capacity.
Model
About the Model
At the center of the initiative is the Ontario Disease Burden Model (ODBM), a tool developed by DLSPH researchers for the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA) to project how chronic disease patterns in Ontario are expected to evolve over time. In October 2024, DLSPH in collaboration with the OHA and ICES, published Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario.
Purpose
Purpose
HEALTHMAP extends the Ontario Disease Burden Model (ODBM) to show how chronic disease trends in Ontario could change under different prevention and policy scenarios. The model is being adapted to:
- Project chronic disease burden at provincial and public health unit levels.
- Assess how shifts in prevention strategies and public health policy could influence future trends.
- Quantify the measurable impact of prevention on morbidity and demand for health services.
- Identify indicators to monitor prevention activities through provincial and local reporting.
By integrating indicators into forecasting, HEALTHMAP makes the value of prevention visible, measurable, and actionable for planning and investment across the health system.
Phases
Phases
HEALTHMAP is being developed and introduced in phases to ensure a credible, relevant, and usable model for Ontario’s public health and health system partners.
Year 1 – Model Adaptation and Early Engagement *
Produce baseline reports for public health units from the original model developed by DLSPH. Refining the ODBM to incorporate prevention impacts, selecting indicators through expert consultation, and engagement with partners.
Year 2 – Local Application and Broader Engagement
Applying the model at public health unit levels to support local planning and scenario analysis.
Year 3 – System Integration and Public Reporting
Embedding HEALTHMAP outputs into planning, reporting, and decision‑making processes, with public‑facing reporting to support transparency and accountability.
Resources
Resources
MyPHO
Don’t have a MyPHO account? Register Now